The Anatomy of a Defeat

NCAA Regional Quarterfinal

   Most analysts and fans point to the final 30 seconds of the NCAA regional quarterfinal between UNC and Iowa State as the crucial point in the game, in which the Tar Heels lost the ball, and subsequently the game, as Iowa State player DeAndre Kane, who was a thorn in Carolina's side all day long, drove the lane and scored on a layup.  After both teams had led by as many as eight or nine points, the game came down to one deciding shot.

        
   Or they will point to the aftermath, in which panic and frenzy ensued, as freshman Nate Britt dribbled the ball upcourt, thinking there was still time on the clock.  The referees ended the game in a dead ball huddle,  determining that there was actually no time left on the clock, when the scoreboard showed otherwise.  Apparently, the scorekeeper turned the clock off and forgot or neglected to turn it back on.

   
  These plays obviously seemed like the determining factors in the game.

  Or were they ?

  While UNC guard Marcus Paige openly took blame for the defeat, it was not necessarily his turnover with 0:31 left on the clock that ultimately led to UNC's meltdown loss.  The Tar Heels had trailed by as many as nine points (35-26) in the first half, and seven in the second stanza, before they rallied and fought back to go ahead THREE DIFFERENT TIMES by eight, the last time by 76-68 at 4:24 left.   The Tar Heels steal the ball, and at the other end, Paige immediately hoists up a 3-point shot, which in most cases, would've counted.  He's almost 40% from the arc, and a lot higher percentage in clutch situations.  This time, though, it caromed off the rim.  Naz Long rebounded, then received a pass on the other end where he connected on a 3-point shot to trim the lead to five, 76-71.

  It was on this critical exchange where the Tar Heels lost both the momentum and the game.  Am I saying that it was impossible that they could've won the game ?  No.  It was highly possible.  But rather than depending on last-second heroics, UNC could've bagged the game at the 4:00 mark.  Paige's shot would've given Carolina an 11-point cushion had he made it.  Even better, Paige could've chosen to push the ball inside to either McAdoo or Meeks, who had been scoring down low all game, for a 10-point lead.  Either way, we would've had a double-digit lead and incredible momentum going into the last four minutes.  I am convinced that we would've won going away, had we been successful on this one play.

   Instead, we had a six-point turnaround.  Instead of an 11-point lead, it became five. Then, with less than a minute to go, Naz Long made another 3-pointer to tie the game for the second time in three minutes at 81-81.   We "could've" pulled the game out.  But by this time, the momentum and confidence had clearly shifted to Iowa State.  

   As I've said before, a player only has seconds to think about a decision in a game, then they have months to think about it afterwards.   

   Marcus Paige says that he knows the Tar Heels blew this game.  But he's also excited and looking forward to the upcoming 2014-15 season.  Carolina has most of its starters returning, plus the #3 recruiting class in the nation.  It should be a promising year for us.  

   Ya know.. we've been on the "good" end of a blown game before.  Freddie Brown's errant pass in 1982, and Chris Webber's time out in 2003, have an unfortunate legacy that will follow them the rest of their lives.  Both of those plays resulted in UNC clinching a NCAA championship.  

  Then, we've been on the "bad" end too.. the 1977 Four Corners fiasco with Marquette, injuries to Kenny Smith in 1984 and Kendall Marshall in 2011.   We can look back at the good and savor it, and look back at the bad, and say..

   "If only.. "

CYCLONES RIP OUT CAROLINA’S HEART

Carolina's LAST game of the Year : UNC vs. Iowa State
 

Notes from the UNC-Iowa State game

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First Half Highlights :

Story of runs and cold spells :

Carolina ahead 14-7 early in game

Iowa State goes on 28-12 run to take a 9-point lead, 35-26.

UNC comes back on 11-5 run to cut lead to 3 at half, 40-37.

COLD SHOOTING :

Iowa State has been giving UNC the long shot, but they’ve not been hitting them.

Marcus Paige has 9 points and one 3-pointer at half and shot 37%.

Carolina shot 33% from 3-point arc (4-12), while Iowa State shot 47% on three’s.

PG DeAndre Kane, whose season avg. is 17 ppg, led ISU with 15 pts and 8 rebounds.

Leslie McDonald led UNC with 12 pts

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Second Half Highlights :

Tar Heels start out 4-1 to tie the game, 41-41, at  .  But then Iowa State went 7-0 to go ahead, 48-41.

J.P. Tokoto steal results in a dunk at 15:32, Iowa State up 48-45.

Leslie McDonald hits a “3” at 13:15 to tie the game at 52-52, he has 15 points and 3/7 on three pointers

Paige hits 3-pointer at 11:14 to put UNC up, 56-55.  Then Justin Hogue completes 3-point play at foul line to put Iowa State back up, 58-56.

McDonald steals, then Kennedy Meeks layup and another Paige 3-pointer finishes a 10-0 run by the Tar Heels for a six-point lead, 66-60 at 8-minute mark. 

Marcus Paige steals at the 6:30 mark and takes it for a layup and a 70-62 UNC lead.

Meeks & McAdoo have been dominating the boards, getting offensive boards and follow lay-ups.

UNC seemed poised and ready to put the game away with three different 8-point leads, the last one at 76-68 on a Meeks layup.

Carolina stole the ball and had an opportunity to raise the lead to eleven at the 4:00 mark, but Paige missed a 3-point shot.  Instead, Long hit a 3-pointer for ISU to cut the lead to five. 

But two Iowa State 3-point shots draw the score to two, at the 3:00 mark, then a layup ties the game at 76 with 2:00 to go.  ISU on an 8-0 run.

McDonald clutch 3-pointer at 1:30, Tar Heels up 3, 79-76.  Trade layups, then Long hits a 3-pointer to tie the game at 81, with less than a minute (50.9).

Steal and long pass for layup puts ISU up, 83-81, with 28 seconds left in the game.

McAdoo calmly hits two free throws at 15.7 seconds to tie game.

Driving layup with less than three seconds by Kane puts Iowa State ahead, 85-83.

A Tar Heels timeout was called late, and the referees called the game over.   Iowa State 85, UNC 83.

IT'S ALL OVER FOLKS!   THERE GOES OUR SEASON!

 Actually, it wasn't a BAD season.. just a BAD ending.. 

 

The Mercy of Providence

    I had high hopes for UNC and their chances against Providence on Friday night.  And I'm still a believer in the Tar Heels and their chances moving forward in the NCAA Tournament.  Part of that is a biased preference and passion for Carolina.  I've been a fan of the Heels ever since I was about 10 or 12 years old.  I went to their basketball camp two years in a row [I don't know for what purpose!].   I don't think that I've missed more than a handful of UNC's games over the last four decades. [Yes!]  But I have to admit, as one of my friends remarked, "They have to play better than this!"  Yes, I agree with him.

Providence was no E-Z Opponent

   For a long while on Friday, it appeared as if the Providence Friars had control of this basketball game.  They started off hitting four of their first five shots, but UNC hung in there, only down one, 9-8.  As the first half progressed, Carolina actually went ahead and built as much as a six to eight-point lead.  An impressive steal and spin dunk by J.P. Tokoto put the Heels up 37-30 with 3 1/2 minutes left.  Then PU's talented PG Bryce Cotton took over, as he did so many different times in this game, and brought Providence back to within three at the half, 39-36.

   A brief crowd pleaser occurred as the first half buzzer sounded.  Marcus Paige heaved a prayer from beyond the half court line that swished, but alas, it had been released just a half second too late to count.

   Coach Roy Williams said at halftime, "We need to play better."  This seems like a season-long mantra, more than a passing observation.   It served to hold true, as the Tar Heels were to just barely get out with their Basketball Lives in the second half.

    It appeared early in the 2nd half as if UNC would blow this game out, as they came out determined, and through several steals, layups, and dunks, ran out to leads of 45-38 and then 54-45.  But it was not to be, as BU's Cotton again led a comeback to bring this game right down to the wire.  

Providence star Bryce Cotton

   As Cotton performed his heroics, the Tar Heels went an amazing three minutes without scoring a point, and Providence went on an 11-0 run to take the lead for the first time in the half, 60-58.  At this point, UNC looked dazed and confused, and had no rhythm or rhyme in their offense, and absolutely no answer for Bryce Cotton and his amazing shooting and ballhandling display.

   Only our version of the Bryce/Brice combo, Brice Johnson, was able to keep us in the game with some key plays, while star guard Marcus Paige was battling a cold shooting night.  Then, suddenly, at the 3:00 and 1:05 marks, Paige came alive as he drilled two separate 3-pointers, each tying the score at 71-71 and 77-77.

   After a Providence missed layup, the Tar Heels rebounded and James Michael McAdoo was fouled on an offensive rebound and went to the line twice, with less than four seconds to go.  He made the first free throw, then missed and got his own rebound, and was promptly fouled again.   Once again, he hit the first, but missed the second.  However, this time, the rebound was lost as time expired.

   After the game, I heard some sportscaster praising McAdoo for "winning the game" for Carolina.  I must argue a point : McAdoo only made two of four free throws with only seconds to go in the game.   What happens when he, or another poor Carolina free throw shooter, goes to the line, down two or four points, in the closing seconds?   It's easy pontificating from the sidelines, but we need some guys (other than Paige and Britt) who can step up to the line and take care of business.. in the clutch.   If not, then missed foul shots may prove to be our downfall and send us home to contemplate next year.

  UNC wins, 79-77.  The Mercy of Providence.  

    NEXT GAME : SUN MARCH 23 vs. IOWA STATE

Digger Predicts UNC Flop

   Digger Phelps, ESPN Sports Analyst, today announced his prediction for the upcoming UNC-Providence NCAA Tournament game.

   He says the Friars are going to bounce Carolina out of the tournament and send them packing for home.

   Phelps, in an on-air discussion of NCAA game predictions, stated his opinion that Bryce Cotton, Providence's star guard, will penetrate and out-shoot the UNC team to cause the upset in Friday night's game.   Phelps also predicted that Carolina's poor (62%) free throw shooting will cause Providence to send them to the line, if the score is close late in the game.

   It is clear that Providence is somewhat of a sleeper, having had an average 20-11 regular season, but then winning three straight in the Big East tournament, knocking off favorite Creighton in the final game.

    If Phelp's predictions come true, it will be a sad ending to an up-and-down year for the Tar Heels.  Starting out unpredictably slow, Carolina still managed to beat three Top Ten teams in Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky.  In early 2014, Carolina broke down, losing four out of their first five ACC contests.   Then UNC heated up in late January, going through February undefeated on a record 12-game winning streak.  Only in the last two games, in rematches with Duke and Pittsburgh, did the Tar Heels seem to revert back to early season woes.

   Another fellow ESPN analyst predicted that UNC's bigger front line of Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, and James Michael McAdoo will dominate the smaller Providence team.  However, one of the surprising weaknesses lately with the Tar Heels team, along with their poor foul shooting, has been the inability to rebound.  In the Duke game, UNC managed just 20 rebounds, their lowest total of the season.   This was incredibly uncharacteristic of a normal UNC front line.

   Let's hope that the Tar Heels can "put their act together" and play up to their potential in the next four games, starting with the Providence matchup on Friday.   If so, they will prove Digger wrong, and move on to another game on Sunday, probably against Iowa State.

NEXT GAME :  FRIDAY, MARCH 21 @ 7:20 PM vs. PROVIDENCE

 

 

From Feast to Famine

 TAR HEELS COME BACK DOWN TO EARTH
  A 12-game winning streak.  A place in the national poll's Top 20.   Vaulting from a tie for last place to 2nd or 3rd in the ACC standings.   Beating Duke at the Dean Dome.

  Great accomplishments for any team.  But somewhat of a tradition and ordinary occurrence for Carolina and its fans.  High hopes for another ACC Tournament championship.  A high seed in the NCAA Tournament.  A run to the Final Four.

  BACK TO REALITY..  It didn't take but two games for gravity to bring us back from the stratoshere down to earth again.  

PARKER & ZANNA HAVE CAREER DAYS

   UNC went down to Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the Blue Devils have been almost invincible, and lost 93-81.  Duke's two-headed monster of Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood were not to be denied, scoring 54 points combined, with Parker having a career-high 30 points and 11 rebounds to lead the way, hitting on 10 of his 17 shots.  Carolina was behind by only a respectable three points at 40-37 at the midway mark, but fell apart in the second half as Duke went on a roll.  The Blue Devils missed 12 of its first 14 3-point shots, but then came on strong, shooting 57% in the second half.  

   Six days later, in their ACC Tournament quarterfinal game, UNC met Pittsburgh again, a team they had beaten by 75-71 in Chapel Hill a month earlier.  This game was entirely different from the outset, as the Panthers outplayed the Tar Heels and held on to win, 80-75.  Pitt big man Talib Zanna had 19 points and a career-high 21 rebounds in the victory over the Heels.  UNC probably could have pulled out a win, as they staged a miraculous comeback that brought them within three points in the final seconds.  Pitt had led by 20 points midway through the second half, before turnovers and missed foul shots allowed the Tar Heels to climb back into the game.  UNC's Marcus Paige led all scorers with 27 points, and 20 of those came in the second half comeback.  Still, Carolina came up short.

BRAND NEW START: NCAA TOURNEY
   Carolina gets a fresh start, so to speak, this week in the NCAA Tournament.  All 68 teams are now 0-0 as they begin playing a one-and-done quest for a national championship.  UNC is certainly not favored to get to the Final Four.   They were seeded a disappointing sixth in the East Regional.  Their opening game is Friday, March 21, in San Antonio, TX, against a surprising Providence team, who finished the regular season an average 20-11, but won three straight to win the Big East tournament, beating #14 Creighton and national scoring leader Doug McDermott in the final game.

   This is no easy match for the Tar Heels.  It is no gimme, no shoo-in.  And, if they are able to make it past Providence, then the East bracket will no doubt usher in Iowa State, and then either UConn or Villanova in the Semifinals, and either Virginia or Michigan State in the Regional Finals.  Four wins will catapult us into the Final Four, but these will be four extremely tough matchups.

 WHASSUP, TAR HEELS ?
   Are the Tar Heels up to the challenge?   Hardly anyone thinks so.  They have shown glaring defects all season long.   First of all, they manage to lose their star and high scoring guard P.J. Hairston to off-the-court violations.  Then they go into an absolutely horrible doldrum of poor free throw shooting.  They seem to play up or down to their competition, beating high-ranked Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky convincingly, but losing to humdrum teams like Belmont and UAB.  Then, at the midway point, they go on a tear, winning a phenomenal 12 games in a row, but albeit, against the ACC's middle to lower echelon teams, with the exception of beating Duke at home.

  So which UNC team will show up ?  The team that set records and went 12-0, or the team that lost to Belmont, and the last two games, including a bomb in the ACC Tournament ?   We'll soon see.  Don't make any big bets on the Heels.   However, anything's possible.  They have shown some glimmers of hope during this season.  Will reality set in again, or will they somehow find a way to again defy gravity and soar to new heights in the postseason ?

NEXT GAME :  FRIDAY, MARCH 21 @ 7:20 PM vs. PROVIDENCE

 

HEY.. Heels & Devils Go At It Again

   A friend (who happens to be a Duke fan) told me the other day, "Your Tar Heels are in trouble now.  Duke is not only looking for revenge from losing to you last time, but now they are also upset about losing to Georgia Tech."  

  HEY-- # 1.. We can't help who you lost to.. but we can help who you're GONNA lose to this Saturday night.  Right ?  

  HEY--#2.. My team is on a current 12-game winning streak.  Although they didn't look GREAT against Virginia Tech or Notre Dame, they still managed to pull out victories by playing strong at the end.

  HEY-- #3.. Even if UNC loses to Duke on Saturday, I believe that we have the momentum going into the ACC Tournament.  The only team that may even come close to us is Virginia, but not Duke or Syracuse.


  

Heels Now in 2nd Place

 UNC's Tar Heels, by virtue of their amazing twelve-game winning streak, and a complete breakdown by former undefeated and #1 Syracuse, have now bolted into second place in the ACC standings, led only by another amazing team, Virginia.   The Cavs recently overtook Syracuse as the ACC leader, and Carolina, who was at the very bottom, tied for last place, in January, has crept up to vault Duke and now are tied with Syracuse for second.  A win in their final game with Duke, plus another Syracuse loss to Florida State, would put the Tar Heels into sole possession of second place.

   This is actually an amazing turn of events, as a short month ago, Syracuse was undefeated at 25-0 and ranked #1 in the college basketball polls.

   While this doesn't guarantee the Tar Heels anything, it does give them byes in the first two rounds of the ACC Tournament, and has great significance when it comes to seeding in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.   It seems like a miracle that since January, UNC has climbed from a mediocre team that was going nowhere, barely over .500 at 11-7, to a 23-7 squad rated #14 nationally, and poised for a #1 or #2 tournament seed, and perhaps tournament games near home.

  Keep posted.  We will cover the Duke game on Saturday.  Then.. things get really exciting as our Tar Heels, like everyone else, will settle into a do-or-die, one-&-done, run at the national championship.  What seemed like a distant dream two months ago is actually a realistic goal now.   We've seen Carolina's potential.   Now all they will have to do is live up to it for about ten more games.

STAY TUNED for Duke &  ACC TOURNAMENT COVERAGE

UNC Surges Into Home Stretch

A MIRACLE FINISH 
   A couple of months ago, I wouldn't have bet a nickel on Carolina's chances of salvaging a good, much less remarkable season.   They were 11-7, barely over .500, and tied for last place in the ACC standings.   Twelve games later.. well.. they have pulled off an amazing miracle run of twelve straight wins, and now stand 23-7, passing Duke for third place in the ACC.  The Tar Heels have already secured a two-game BYE in the ACC Tournament, and will not play until the Quarterfinals. They have also finally vaulted back into national prominence, at #14 in the latest college basketball polls.  A win against Duke will most surely put them back into the Top Ten, and stake their claim for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
 
    Since the last post, UNC has notched their 11th and 12th wins in a row, at Virginia Tech and Notre Dame at home.  Surprisingly, both of these wins came with some degree of difficulty, considering the weaker opposition.   The Tar Heels' last three games have been won by a combined total of seven points.  Is this a point of concern, heading into the regular season finale against Duke, and the postseason ?

TAR HEELS : SURGING OR SLUGGISH ? 
   Tar Heel guard Marcus Paige said, "If we have big goals and dreams, we can’t have all these sluggish games."  In these wins, Carolina hasn't looked terrible.   They have just allowed weaker teams to stay within striking distance, and then have to either make a rally or hold on to a slim lead at the end of games to pull out the win.  This luxury, however, of being close at the end of games may not follow them into the post-season tournament.  When they are facing teams of the caliber of Duke, Syracuse, or Wichita State, it will take forty minutes of a total effort from every player to secure a victory.

   It seems that the sluggish play has been a result of lack of focus and concentration, and desire.  Point guard Nate Britt remarked, "We’ve talked about the need to pick it up, especially the intensity level the last few games... [They] have been close and we could have played a whole lot better."   Even Coach Roy Williams pointed out that the Tar Heels were sharper in their previous day's practice than they were in the win over Notre Dame.

CRUNCH TIME 
   Okay.  It's crunch time.  We all know the history and tradition of Tar Heels basketball. We always tend to play our best basketball in March and April.   We can't afford a letdown, after such a marvellous display over the last twelve games.   Our Heels looked like a band of ragamuffins back in January.   Now, in recent games, they have shown the promise of being a contender for a run into the tournament, and maybe even a title.

  We go play Duke at their place, Cameron Indoor Stadium, on Saturday.  Obviously, the place will be humming with crowd noise.  It's imperative that we pull together and play Tar Heels basketball.   After the Duke game comes the ACC Tournament, and odds are great that we will be facing two teams that beat us earlier, Syracuse and Virginia.  And then, the NCAA tournment, where heaven-only-knows what powerhouses we will come up against in the brackets.  

   The Bottom Line :  It don't get any easier from this point on.

   It's time to suck it up and show us what you got.  As Nike says, "Just Do It."

Tar Heel Team on Same Paige

   Carolina squeaked out a narrow victory over a scrappy, determined NC State Wolfpack on Wednesday night on a shot in the last second of overtime, 85-84.

   UNC’s game with NC State reminded me of two different fictional scenarios.

• The game’s start brought “The Tortoise and The Hare” to mind.  This has been a reoccurring theme in UNC’s season: starting out sluggish, only to finish in a frenzy.  

• The game’s heated ending reminded me of “The Shootout at the OK Corral,” as Carolina’s Marcus Paige (35 points) and State’s T.J. Warren (36 points) gunned it out in the final minutes.

      
   The Tar Heels got out of the gate slow, scoring only 15 points in the first 15 minutes, as they fell behind by eleven, 26-15.  Carolina, however, battled back to make the game closer throughout the second half.

   UNC went ahead for only the second time in the game at the 7:00 mark of the second half, 53-52, on a J.P. Tokoto layup. The game would go down to the wire, as Warren, the ACC’s leading scorer, and Paige, Carolina’s go-to guy, would trade baskets right down to the last seconds of the game. 

   It was ironic that foul shooting, which has been UNC’s thorn in most games, eventually won them the game.  Warren hit two foul shots with 1.5 seconds in regulation to tie the game and send it into overtime. But then, with seven seconds left in OT, his miss at the foul line opened the door for the incredible ending.

   Marcus Paige, who scored an amazing 31 of his 35 points in the second half, looked more like a hare than a tortoise, as he took the inbounds pass, and being double- and triple-teamed, nevertheless streaked down the lane for a scoop layup with less than a second left on the clock to seal the Tar Heels victory and tenth win in a row.

   This game will probably go down as one of the most exciting games in Carolina history.  I know I'm going to keep it on the DVR at least for awhile.

Next Up :  Saturday at Virginia Tech,  &  Monday vs. Notre Dame

Lucky Numbers : UNC Rallies to Beat Duke

      If you bet against the Tar Heels on Thursday night, you were unlucky.
 

Lucky 13 was the Tar Heels Number

     Thirteen was a lucky number for the Tar Heels on Thursday night.  Point guard Marcus Paige, shut down by Duke double teams in the first half, broke out to score all of his 13 points in the second half and lead the Tar Heels to a great win over the Blue Devils.  Duke helped in the cause by missing 13 shots in a row during the second stanza.

     If the Tar Heels win out in their remaining games, they will enter the ACC Tournament with a 13-game winning streak and a 24-7 record.

   Eight was also a lucky number for UNC (19-7, 9-4), as they beat Duke by an eight-point margin, 74-66, to win their eighth straight game.  The win brought them a half-game within third-place Duke in the ACC standings.  Virginia (13-1) took over first place as previously unbeaten Syracuse (12-1) lost to Boston College this past week.

UNC-Duke Game Summary

   Carolina shot out to an early 6-0 lead, but Duke fought back and led for most of the game, though it was only a single-digit lead most of the way.  The Blue Devils managed to stretch their lead  to eleven early in the second half at 51-40, and hold on until the four-minute shooting drought allowed the Heels to make their rally and take control of the game.  UNC, who has had free throw shooting woes the entire season, only shot 66% (20-31) during the game, but was able to make their last ten shots from the line to secure the victory.

   The leading scorer for Carolina was Leslie McDonald, with a season-high 21 points.

UNC-Wake Forest Game Summary

   On Saturday, UNC faced Wake Forest, who they had lost to in their first ACC game back in early January.  It may have looked like a trap game for the Heels.  But this time was a totally different story, as the Tar Heels shot ahead early, led by 19 at halftime, and completely dominated the Deacons for their ninth straight win, breaking the century mark, 105-72. 

   This win also gave the Tar Heels (20-7) their 55^th 20-win season over the last 105 years.

   The Tar Heels built their big lead in the first half at the free throw line, hitting on 16-17 shots, while Wake Forest only shot 1-4 at the stripe.  The second half saw Carolina hold and extend their lead with tight, aggressive defense, and an array of layups, dunks and three-pointers on offense. 

   UNC’s shooting was torrid in this game, with over 60% FG’s, and over 70% of both Free Throws and 3-Point shots.

   Carolina is still missing from the Top 25 AP & ESPN basketball polls.  What’s up with that ?   I’m sure they will probably break back into the pack this week.   If not, then I think the sportscasters and sportswriters should go see their eye doctor.

Next Up : Wed Feb 26 : The Tar Heels go for Ten Straight against NC State.