Saturday, April 2, 2016

Final Four--- Meeting of the Minds

UNC TAR HEELS
2016 FINAL FOUR

    Thursday night, the Tar Heels, along with Oklahoma, Villanova, and Syracuse all prepared in Houston for their matchups on Saturday.  But in Salisbury, Howard Platt and Bob Wingate converged at a local restaurant to enjoy food and fellowship, with the conversation--- although occasionally veering off the path-- centered on the Tar Heels and the Final Four.  This is the 19th trip to the Final Four for the Tar Heels.

    Perhaps we should have planned it a few days in advance and invited more guests to join us, although we did put out a Facebook post welcoming anyone to join us.   It may have been more lively and entertaining to both of us if we had a few Duke fans or others to spice up the conversation.

    Frankly, Howard and I agree with each other on most aspects of UNC basketball.   We agree the team has come a long way in improvement, from last year, and also in the midst of this season.   Several players have blossomed or added new dimensions to their games.   Some reserves have stepped up to take new roles with greater responsibility.  A few players have surprised us along the way.




     Howard says, "I think the depth of the Tar Heels could really tell the story. If guys like Pinson, Britt, Hicks, and even James make major contributions, as they have been lately, the Heels should have an easier time.  Also it seems UNC has dominated the second half of games recently because of that depth. ...This gives the Heels so many options which I feel gives them the edge against every team in this tournament."

    Howard also says that the two biggest statistical factors in the game for Carolina will be rebounding and shooting at least 45% to 50% from the field.
So far in the tournament, the Tar Heels have been averaging almost a whopping 90 points per game, and shooting at a phenomenal 62% rate.

    He believes that the Syracuse zone and press defenses may give the Tar Heels some problems on Saturday. I agree-- although Coach Roy Williams said in his press conference that his team has been practicing and watching game film to prepare for these things.  (see below video)

    Syracuse and Carolina have one thing in common-- which may be a benefit to both teams.   They played each other twice during the ACC season.  UNC won both games, but they were not necessarily easy wins.  They won by 11 points, 84--73, at Syracuse in early January, and then almost two months later, won by only five, 75--70, in Chapel Hill.   One could theorize that the Tar Heels were a better team in the second game, played on their home court. But then Syracuse was also a better team.  It's an even better bet that both teams are much improved now, playing in the Final Four.


    So what to expect?  We both expect a hard-fought game, but we both feel that the Tar Heels will have the upper hand.  Both of predict a five-point victory.  Howard predicts the game score will be about 86--81 for Carolina. I'm wondering if the Tar Heels will be able to score that many points against an improved Syracuse defense.  I believe they will play well, but the Orangemen may still be able to slow the pace enough to keep the game in the 70's.  My prediction : 75--70-- same score as the earlier game in Chapel Hill-- but probably with a few new twists and turns along the way.


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     We also discussed the problems with the Houston NRG Arena, which are documented, about the open ends behind the baskets, which cause outside shooters to lose focus and miss more shots than normal.   This may affect Paige, Berry, and Jackson from hitting behind the arc.  But if the game is contested mostly on the inside, the Tar Heels will hold a distinct advantage with Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, and reserve Isaiah Hicks.
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     I asked Howard about the other teams that are playing in the Final Four. He knows a little more about the other teams than I do, and I respect his opinions and insights.   

     We both believe that Oklahoma will beat Villanova, although it may be a close one.  Howard says, "This one could go either way.  Villanova's defense will be the key for them against Oklahoma. Villanova must also shoot very well in order to win.  They have been a hot and cold shooting team, but they have been hot throughout the tournament."  

    Our conversation about the Oklahoma-Villanova game immediately gravitated toward the Sooners' sensational guard, Buddy Hield, who was the 2nd--leading scorer in the nation this season, and who has literally "lit it up" in the NCAA Tournament.  He scored 46 for a season high in a loss to Kansas earlier this year, and hit for 36 and 37 against VCU and Oregon in the past two weeks, shooting at a 65% rate against the Ducks in the Regional Final. Howard said, "The Sooners are very difficult to control, especially with transition threes."

     If the Heels get by the Syracuse zone press, Hield and the Okies may be waiting in the wings for them on Monday night.   (although we both acknowledge that both Oklahoma and Villanova are strong, talented teams, and the team will most likely go down to the wire).  The Tar Heels have been snowed under by previous sharpshooters--- such as Rick Mount (Purdue-1969), Steve Kerr (Arizona-1988), and Glen Rice (Michigan--1989).   They should have a game plan already in place by Monday night to at least contain or disturb Hield's offensive threat and shooting.  Hopefully the "no-man's-land" view behind the baskets will get to him.  We shall see.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves--
the Heels first have to advance past Syracuse.

Should be a fun night to watch basketball!

GO TAR HEELS!
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Thank you Howard for participating in these 
Tar Heel--Final Four Blogs