The Anatomy of a Defeat

NCAA Regional Quarterfinal

   Most analysts and fans point to the final 30 seconds of the NCAA regional quarterfinal between UNC and Iowa State as the crucial point in the game, in which the Tar Heels lost the ball, and subsequently the game, as Iowa State player DeAndre Kane, who was a thorn in Carolina's side all day long, drove the lane and scored on a layup.  After both teams had led by as many as eight or nine points, the game came down to one deciding shot.

        
   Or they will point to the aftermath, in which panic and frenzy ensued, as freshman Nate Britt dribbled the ball upcourt, thinking there was still time on the clock.  The referees ended the game in a dead ball huddle,  determining that there was actually no time left on the clock, when the scoreboard showed otherwise.  Apparently, the scorekeeper turned the clock off and forgot or neglected to turn it back on.

   
  These plays obviously seemed like the determining factors in the game.

  Or were they ?

  While UNC guard Marcus Paige openly took blame for the defeat, it was not necessarily his turnover with 0:31 left on the clock that ultimately led to UNC's meltdown loss.  The Tar Heels had trailed by as many as nine points (35-26) in the first half, and seven in the second stanza, before they rallied and fought back to go ahead THREE DIFFERENT TIMES by eight, the last time by 76-68 at 4:24 left.   The Tar Heels steal the ball, and at the other end, Paige immediately hoists up a 3-point shot, which in most cases, would've counted.  He's almost 40% from the arc, and a lot higher percentage in clutch situations.  This time, though, it caromed off the rim.  Naz Long rebounded, then received a pass on the other end where he connected on a 3-point shot to trim the lead to five, 76-71.

  It was on this critical exchange where the Tar Heels lost both the momentum and the game.  Am I saying that it was impossible that they could've won the game ?  No.  It was highly possible.  But rather than depending on last-second heroics, UNC could've bagged the game at the 4:00 mark.  Paige's shot would've given Carolina an 11-point cushion had he made it.  Even better, Paige could've chosen to push the ball inside to either McAdoo or Meeks, who had been scoring down low all game, for a 10-point lead.  Either way, we would've had a double-digit lead and incredible momentum going into the last four minutes.  I am convinced that we would've won going away, had we been successful on this one play.

   Instead, we had a six-point turnaround.  Instead of an 11-point lead, it became five. Then, with less than a minute to go, Naz Long made another 3-pointer to tie the game for the second time in three minutes at 81-81.   We "could've" pulled the game out.  But by this time, the momentum and confidence had clearly shifted to Iowa State.  

   As I've said before, a player only has seconds to think about a decision in a game, then they have months to think about it afterwards.   

   Marcus Paige says that he knows the Tar Heels blew this game.  But he's also excited and looking forward to the upcoming 2014-15 season.  Carolina has most of its starters returning, plus the #3 recruiting class in the nation.  It should be a promising year for us.  

   Ya know.. we've been on the "good" end of a blown game before.  Freddie Brown's errant pass in 1982, and Chris Webber's time out in 2003, have an unfortunate legacy that will follow them the rest of their lives.  Both of those plays resulted in UNC clinching a NCAA championship.  

  Then, we've been on the "bad" end too.. the 1977 Four Corners fiasco with Marquette, injuries to Kenny Smith in 1984 and Kendall Marshall in 2011.   We can look back at the good and savor it, and look back at the bad, and say..

   "If only.. "